There are countless websites online with all sorts of experts who will give you their
advice on where mortgage rates are headed. For everyone who says they will go up,
you will find someone else who says they will go down. And they all give you way
more technical information than you care to know.
Here, we will give you just the short version of the facts and update you on where
rates are headed. The key to remember is that it is a wild card, anything can change
at any moment which will affect rates. Most people don’t realize this, but rates
can change a few times during each day.
First step, where are rates today? They vary based on location, type of loan, etc.
But generally they all move in the same direction. So to keep it simple, we will
focus on the most common loan, the 30 year fixed mortgage.
We have found that THE BEST way to keep an eye on rates is to look at a bank which
continually updates their rates online during the day. Take a look at the rates
from Chase Bank which can change more than once each day:
These rates will not be the same for your bank or situation, but they are a great
guide to use to track where rates are going. Since rates all move in a very similar
way, keeping an eye on Chase is a great way to see where things are going.
As of January 23rd 2017 their 30 year fixed rate is at 4.125%.
Why do rates move so much?
The most important factor that you can look at is the US Government rate on 10 year
bonds Mortgage rates tend to follow this rate very closely. By following this rate,
you can get an up to the minute idea on what will happen. This rate changes throughout
the day just like a stock. As of January 23rd, the rate is about 2.4%. This is
close to the highest it has been in over a year. Click below to see a live chart
of the rate on Yahoo.
As the yield on the 10 year bond goes up, mortgage rates will also tend to go up.
What is our opinion on the future?
The federal government has begun to raise rates, which is driving up mortgage rates.
We have enjoyed mortgage rates below 4% for a while now and that has changed. The
stock market has hit alll-time highes and the economy is doing well which is also
driving up mortgage rates. There is a lot of uncertainty right now with a new president
and also high volatility in the market. Historically 4.125% is still a good rate.
It is possible that if the stock market reverses course that rates will go back
towards the 4% or slightly below range. But as things stand now, we suggest you
lock in this rate to be safe.